It all depends on how widely it’s adopted by my social circle. I couldn’t wait to get a Wave invite. Once I did, I quickly signed up, sent invites to people I know. Then… Nothing. None of us use it.
I’m a fairly early adopter. Mainly to stay on top of and try new things. But things have to serve a real purpose for me. I don’t try something, then find a purpose for it. I usually try things that serve a real purpose. Wave alone, with no other friends using it, is useless. I assume my friends are like me and find no use for Wave. It’s a nonstarter.
When will it catch on?
I remember when I first signed up for AOL in the very beginning of it. At the time I felt like a computer geek for using it. I kind of was hesitant to tell people I went into chat rooms, because in the very beginning there was a negative stigma attached to it. Then one day I was talking to a friend who I least expected to use AOL, yet alone use a computer for anything. I thought right then, if this guy is on AOL then AOL is going to explode. And it did.
Similar “explosions” happened with other services and social networks I’m in. I can remember having a handful of LinkedIn connections and Facebook friends. Then suddenly, I was being bombarded with requests. They took off in my circle.
Some things will never take off in my circle. Wave is one of them. I wrote about adoption a while back. Wave is a communication preference in my opinion. A preference that relies on others adopting the same preference. If current communication channels (like e-mail) are working, then there is no reason to use Wave.
I foresee the same with Buzz. It’s a little clunky to use. It doesn’t fulfill a real need. My circle will probably not adopt it (rather they’ll stick with Facebook and Twitter). It’s just an extra. But I’ll be in there, to wait and see if it takes off.